Ogata Yosihiko | Researcher Information

2019 - 2022 Estimation of hazard of rupture based on paleoearthquake data.
2019 - 2022 Development of spatio-temporal point process models for seismic activity
2017 - 2021 Study on comprehensive probability forecast of large earthquake
2014 - 2019 Extended spatial point process and mathematical modesl of disasters
2014 - 2017 Development of Bayesian space-time models in stochastic forecast methods for recurrent earthquakes

2014 - 2017 Study on comprehensive probability forecast of large earthquake

2013 - 2016 Refine statistical models for earthquakes

2013 - 2016 Spatial distributions of physical parameters in depth inferred from seismic activity data

2011 - 2014 Strategic research of effective prediction to increase the probability gain statistical space-time model for diagnosing abnormal seismic activity

2008 - 2010 Construction of the foundations of statistical earthquake prediction research

2007 - 2010 On a comprehensive research on statistical modelling and analysis for spatio-temporal data

2005 - 2007 Development for Statistical Earthquake forecasting. Seismic and geodetic anomalies preceding the rupture around the focal region detected by statistical models

2003 - 2006 Statistical Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Data: its Theory and Applications

2004 - 2005 統計モデルによる地震活動の計測と前駆現象の定量的研究

2002 - 2004 Comprehensive study for statistical prediction of seismic activity

1999 - 2001 Construction of space-time statistical models for seismicity and stress changes

1995 - 1997 Statistical Analyzes of Seismicity by Space-Time point process models

1993 - 1994 Simulation of spatial random dense structure and stereology

1988 - 1989 フラクタルと地震の数理

1987 - 1988 Statistical Study of Stereology for the Spatial Correlation of Point Patterns

1986 - 1987 Multivariate Statistical Methods for Nonnormal Populations

1985 - 1986 Development of the Likelihood Procedures for the Spatial Point Patterns and Their Applications

1983 - 1984 地震カタログに基く点過程の統計モデルの開発

1977 - 1977 点過程の統計モデルとその適合性の研究

1976 - 1976 時系列モデルの漸近構造と適合性

A statistical study of aftershock anomalies

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Yosihiko Ogata. Prediction and validation of short-to-long-term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space-time ETAS and space-time Poisson process models. Earth, Planets and Space. 2022. 74. 1
Ogata Y. Prediction and validation of short- medium- and long-term earthquake probabilities using a hierarchical space-time ETAS (HIST-ETAS) models, etc. Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. 2022. 107. 12-8. 547-555
Kumazawa, T, Ogata, Y. Changing features revealed from the non-stationary ETAS model in regional earthquake swarm activity of the Noto Peninsula. Report of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. 2022. 107. 7-4. 292-296
Zhuang, J, Ogata, Y. The ETAS Model in Statistical Seismology: Its History, Recent Developments, and Influences on General Hawkes Processes. 2022. 69. 2. 145-163
Yosihiko Ogata. Visualizing heterogeneities of earthquake hypocenter catalogs: modeling, analysis, and compensation. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science. 2021. 8. 1

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Ogata, Yosihiko. ETAS Model and Infectious Diseases. 2020. 70. 42-43
近江崇宏, 尾形良彦, 汐見勝彦, ENESCU Bogdan, 澤崎郁, 合原一幸. 2018年6月18日の大阪府北部を震源とする地震に対するリアルタイム余震予測. 日本地震学会秋季大会講演予稿集(CD-ROM). 2018. 2018
Takeo Ishibe, Yosihiko Ogata, Hiroshi Tsuruoka, Kenji Satake. Testing the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis for three recent megathrust earthquakes. Geoscience Letters. 2017. 4. 1
近江崇宏, 尾形良彦, 汐見勝彦, ENESCU Bogdan, 澤崎郁, 合原一幸. Hi-net自動処理震源データを用いた余震活動のリアルタイム確率予測システムの開発. 日本地震学会秋季大会講演予稿集(CD-ROM). 2017. 2017
OMI Takahiro, OGATA Yosihiko, OGATA Yosihiko, SHIOMI Katsuhiko, ENESCU Bogdan, ENESCU Bogdan, SAWAZAKI Kaoru, AIHARA Kazuyuki. Impact of automatic catalog quality on real-time aftershock forecasting. 日本地球惑星科学連合大会予稿集(Web). 2016. 2016

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Prediction;validation of short;to long-term earthquake probabilities in inla;Japan using the hierarchical space-time ETAS;space-time Poisson;rocess models
(2022 Annual meeting of Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) 2022)
On statistical methods applied to recent earthquake swarms
(Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting 2022 2022)
A Major Earthquake! Real-time Prediction of Subsequent Earthquakes
(2022 Joint Meeting of Statistical Societies 2022)
Cluster-based Foreshock Discrimination Models for Flexible Prediction
(19th Annual Meeting of Asia Oceania Geoscience Society (AOGS) 2022)
How to obtain probabilities and scenarios of a large earthquake chain
(A Major Earthquake! What next after "Be careful for about a week"? -Late Earthquakes and Temporary Information-(in Japanese) 2022)

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Preseismic anomalies in seismicity and crustal deformation: Case studies of the 2007 Noto Peninsula Earthquake of M6.9 and the 2007 Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake of M6.8, Research Memorandum ISM, 1109, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
Yosihiko Ogata 2009 -
Identification and estimation of superposed Neyman-Scott spatial cluster processes (jointly authored), Research Memorandum ISM, 1106, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
2009 -
Seismicity shadows in space-time aftershock activity, Research Memorandum ISM, 1073, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
2008 -
Development of modeling and observation system for the mechanism of earthquake generation to mitigate huge trench-type earthquake disasters in the Nankai Trough Report on Research Results on Advanced Technology (FY1996-1999 Special Coordination Funds for Promoting Science and Technology) (in Japanese)
Yosihiko Ogata 1995 - 2000
Methodology for evaluating long-term earthquake probability (The Headquarters of Earthquake Research Promotion, Earthquake Research Committee, Long-Term Evaluation Committee)
Yosihiko Ogata 1999 -

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- 1980 Osaka University Department of Engineering Science Doctor of Engineering (statistics)
1973 - 1973 Tokyo University of Education Graduate School Doctor Course (mathematical sciences)
1971 - 1973 Tokyo University of Education Graduate School Master Course (Mathematical Sciences)
1967 - 1971 Shizuoka University Faculty of Science mathematics, probability theory

理学修士 (東京教育大学大学院理学研究科応用数理学専攻)
Doctor of Engineering (Osaka University)

2012/03 - 現在 SOKEN-DAI Professor Emeritus
2012/03 - 現在 ISM Professor Emeritus
2014/06 - 2019/05 Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo Earthquake and Volcano Information Center Project Researcher
2012/04 - 2014/03 Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo Collaborative Research Center for Innovative Mathematical Modeling Visiting Professor
2005/04 - 2012/03 ISM Department of Modeling Professor

2004/04 - 2012/03 The Graduate University for Advanced Studies School of Multidisciplinary Sciences Professor

2004/04 - 2012/03 The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Council Member

2010/09 - 2010/10 Peking University School of Earth and Space Sciences, Department of Geophysics Visiting Professor

2008/06 - 2010/03 The Graduate University for Advanced Studies the President of the SOKEN-DAI Advanced Studies Selection Committee member

2008/04 - 2010/03 SOUKEN-DAI School of Multidisciplinary Sciences Dean

2004/04 - 2010/03 The Graduate University for Advanced Studies the Education and Research Council Member of the Education and Research Council

2004/04 - 2008/03 SOUKEN-DAI Department of Statistical Science, School of Multidisciplinary Sciences Director

2006/06 - 2007/12 The Graduate University for Advanced Studies the President of the SOKEN-DAI Advanced Studies Selection Committee member

2002/04 - 2004/03 The Graduate University for Advanced Studies Council Member

1999/06 - 2004/03 The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Member of the Advisory Council for Research and Management

1994/10 - 2004/03 SOKEN-DAI School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences Concurrent Professor

1994/07 - 2004/03 ISM Professor

2002/04 - 2003/03 The Graduate University for Advanced Studies School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences Vice Dean

2002/05 - 2002/05 University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, USA Institute of Mathematics and its Applications Very Important Visitor

2000/04 - 2002/03 The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Department of Statistical Methodology Director

1998/04 - 2000/03 The Institute of Statistical Mathematics the Center for Development of Statistical Computing Director of the Center

1999/04 - 1999/09 Tokyo Institute of Technology Graduate School of Information Science and Engineering Concurrent Lecturer

1998/11 - 1998/11 Seoul National University, Korea Department of Statistic Visiting Fellow

1998/02 - 1998/02 Nagoya University Concurrent Lecturer

1996/07 - 1996/07 Victoria University of Wellington Institute of Statistics and Operations Research Visiting Research Fellow

1994/10 - 1995/03 University of Tsukuba Department of Mathematics, Graduate School Concurrent Lecturer

1989/04 - 1994/09 The Graduate University for Advanced Studies Department of Statistics Concurrent Associate Professor

1994/04 - 1994/08 Keio University Department of Science and Engineering, Graduate School Concurrent Lecturer

1985/04 - 1994/06 The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Associate Professor

1993/09 - 1994/03 Keio University Department of Science and Engineering, Graduate School Concurrent Lecturer

1993/04 - 1994/03 Kyoto University Graduate School of Science Concurrent Lecturer

1994/01 - 1994/01 CSIRO, Australia Division of Mathematics and Statistic Visiting Fellow

1993/12 - 1993/12 Division of Image Analysis the Center for Mathematics and Computer Science, Amsterdam Visiting Research Scientist

1989/04 - 1990/03 Science and Technology Agency Concurrent Research Fellow

1988/10 - 1989/03 Science and Technology Agency Concurrent Research Fellow

1988/10 - 1989/03 Kobe University Geophysics Department, Graduate School Concurrent Lecturer

1988/03 - 1988/05 Sabbatical leave supported by the Ministry of Education ; University of Durham and University of Strathclyde, UK; University of Copenhagen and University of Aarhus, Denmark; University of Gothenburg, Sweden; Naval Postgraduate School at Monterey; US Geological Survey at Menlo Park; and Stanford University

1987/04 - 1988/03 The University of Tokyo Earthquake Research Institute Concurrent Research Fellow

1986/04 - 1988/03 The Open University of Japan Concurrent Lecturer

1987/05 - 1987/06 CSIRO, Australia Division of Mathematics and Statistics Visiting Research Fellow

1987/02 - 1987/03 Ministry of Commerce and Industry of Japan Geological Survey of Japan Concurrent Research Fellow

1986/04 - 1987/03 The University of Tokyo Earthquake Research Institute Concurrent Research Fellow

1986/12 - 1986/12 Mining Academy of Freiberg, G.D.R. (East Germany) Department of Mathematics Visiting Fellow

1986/11 - 1986/12 ETH, Zurich, Switzerland Seminar fur Statistik Visiting Fellow

1984/07 - 1985/03 The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Principal Research Associate

1984/10 - 1984/10 Geophysical Institute, State Seismological Bureau, Beijing Visiting Fellow

1973/11 - 1984/06 The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Research Associate

1982/03 - 1982/04 Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand Institute of Statistics and Operations Research Research Fellow

1981/12 - 1982/02 Advanced Institute, Australian National University Statistics Department Post-Doctoral Research Fellow

1978/08 - 1978/11 Advanced Institute, Australian National University Statistics Department Post-Doctoral Research Fellow

1978/02 - 1978/08 Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand Mathematics Department Visiting Lecturer

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2022/05 - 2025/03 Coodinating Committee of Earthquake Prediction Member of the Subcommittee of the Working Group
2009/04 - 2025/03 Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction committee member
2022/04 - 2024/03 Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Research Council, Working Group for the Evaluation Methodology of Probability of Earthquakes in the Earth's Crust, Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo Member of the the Working Group
2018/04 - 2020/06 Seismological Society of Japan Auditor
2017/04 - 2019/03 Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) Project "Research Plan for Earthquake and Volcanic Observations to Contribute to Disaster Mitigation Co-researchers

2014/04 - 2019/03 Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) project "Development of a physical model for the generation of lateral displacement type inland earthquakes" Co-researchers

2014/04 - 2019/03 MEXT Project "Research Plan for Earthquake and Volcanological Observations to Contribute to Disaster Mitigation": Development of a physical model of the occurrence of lateral displacement type inland earthquakes Co-researchers

2013/07 - 2018/03 Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) project "Mitigation of catastrophic disasters caused by urban vulnerability, elucidation of the relationship between small- and medium-sized earthquakes and the process of major earthquakes in the Tokyo metropolitan area". Collaborator, Chair of the Study Committee

2012/12 - 2013/08 The 8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei8) Beijing, China Advisory Committee member

2010/05 - 2011/05 The 7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei7), Thera, Sntorini, Greece Organizing & Programming Committee member

2009/01 - 2010/02 AGU Chapman Conference on Complexity and Extreme Events in Geosciences, Hiderabad, India Program Committee

2001/04 - 2009/03 Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction Temporary committee member

2001/06 - 2008/03 Research Center for Science and Technology Trends, National Institute for Science and Technology Policy, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology expert witness

2006/08 - 2007/06 The 5th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei5) Rrice, Sicily Italy Advisory Board

2002/01 - 2004/07 Bernoulli Society World Congress, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Joint Meeting Program Committee member

2004/04 - International Statistical Institute, Member, Committe for Environmental Statistics

2002/10 - 2003/05 The 3rd International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei3), Julriquilla, Mexico Session Organizer

1997/11 - 2001/06 The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Earthquake Research Committee Expert Committee (Member of the Subcommittee for the Study of Long-Term Earthquake Probability Evaluation Methodology)

2000/01 - 2001/04 Probability Statistics and Seismology :A Festschrift for David Vere-Jones,Applied Probability Trust, Manchester, UK Editor

2000/01 - 2001/04 The 3rd International Workshop of Statistical Seismology, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand Executive committee member

1998 - 2000 The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, Earthquake Research Committee Expert Committee (Member of the Subcommittee for the Study of Long-Term Earthquake Prediction Probability Evaluation Methodology)

1997 - 2000 Journal of Statistical planning and Inference Associate Editor

1996 - 2000 Earthquake Prediction Research Promotion Agency, Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) funded project "Great Earthquake Hazards in the Nankai Trough Member of the Advisory Committee on Modeling of Earthquake Occurrence Mechanisms and Advancement of Observation Systems for Mitigation Collaborator

1996 - 2000 Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability committee member

1995 - 2000 Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability Member of the Special Committee on Statistics in the Various Sciences

1993 - 2000 Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability BERNOULLI Associate Editor

1998 - 1999 Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability International Meeting on PROBA-STATS '99 Committee member

1998 - 1999 Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability International Meeting on Probability and Statistics and their Applications, Hanoi, Vietnam, Programme Committee member

1997 - 1999 Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability Member of the Program Organizing Committee of the International Workshop on Statistical Science in Space, Earth and Environmental Sciences (Athens, Greece)

1997 - 1998 The Headquarters of Earthquake Research Promotion, Office of the Prime Minister, Earthquake Research Committee Expert Committee (member of the Subcommittee on Evaluation of Aftershock Probability)

1998 - Graduate University for Advanced Studies Chairman of the Implementation Committee of the 5th International Symposium "Strategies for Complex Systems: Composition and Description

1998 - Statistical Society of Japan Organizer of Scientific Session on, "MCMC Method and Bayesian Model", Common Theme Sectional Meeting of the Annual Meeting

1996/03 - 1997/03 National Research Institute for Earthquakes and Disaster Prevention (Science and Technology Agency) Earthquake Prediction Research Center, etc. committee member

1996 - 1997 Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability Member of the International Advisory Committee and the International Research Meeting "Recent Advances in Statistics and Probability" (sponsored by the Indian Statistical Institute), "Seismic Activity. Organizer, "Modeling and Earthquake Prediction

1994 - 1997 Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability Chairman of the Academic Program Organization Committee of the International Statistical Association Istanbul

1994 - 1997 International Statistical Institute Member of the Coordinating Committee for the Academic Program, The International Statistical Meeting in Istanbul, Turky

1993 - 1996 International Statistical Institute) Members of the Publications Search Committee

1992 - 1996 Statistical Society of Japan Director of General Affairs and Treasurer and Board of Councilors.

1987 - 1995 International Statistical Institute International Statistical Review, Associate Editor

1990 - 1993 Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability Member of the Special Committee for Statistics in the Physical Science

1990 - 1993 Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability 49th International Statistical Institute Conference (Firenze, Italy), Bernoulli Society Session, Scientific Program Organization Committee, member

1990 - 1993 Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability Member of the Special Committee on Statistics in the Various Sciences

1984/07 - Annual Meeting of the Statistical Society of Japan Session organizer

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2020/05 - Seismological Society of Japan 2019 Seismological Society of Japan Prize The ETAS model of seismic activity and systematization of statistical seismological theory
2017/02 - The 10th International Workshop Statistical Seismology, Local Organizing Committee The most royal statistical seismology meeting attendee Award The 1st-10th Biennial Conference Perfect Attendance
2010/11 - Tectonophysics, Elsevir Tectonophysics, Most Cited Article Top 50 citation of Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, 2005-2010 Space-time ETAS models and an improved extension, Tectonophysics, Vol. 413, 13-23.
2010/05 - Korean Statistical Society 2010 IL-SONG Invited lecturer Modeling of Temporal and Spatial Nonhomogeneity for Space-time Processes
2002/09 - Japan Statistical Society Japan Statistical Society Prize Contributions to statistical asymptotic theory, statistical inference for point processes, spatial statistics and statistical seismology

Mathematical Society of Japan , Japan Statistical Society , Japan Geoscience Union , American Geophysical Union(AGU) , Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability , International Statistical Institute , Seismological Society of Japan