Art

J-GLOBAL ID：201802238234455098   Reference number：18A2171847

On the Existence of the Predictability Barrier in the Wintertime Stratospheric Polar Vortex: Intercomparison on the Predictability of the Two Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in 2009 and 2010

冬季成層圏極渦に内在する予測障壁-2009・2010年の成層圏突然昇温の予測可能性比較-

Author (5)： MUKOGAWA HITOSHI (京大 大学院理学研究科) ,  NOGUCHI SHUNSUKE (気象研) ,  KURODA YUJI (気象大) ,  MIZUTA RYO (気象研) ,  KODERA KUNIHIKO (気象研)
Material： 京都大学防災研究所年報(CD-ROM)  (Abstracts for Annuals. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University (CD-ROM))
Issue： 61  Page： 360-365  Publication year： Sep. 2018 
JST Material Number： S0431B  ISSN： 0386-412X  Document type： Article
Article type： 原著論文  Country of issue： Japan (JPN)  Language： JAPANESE (JA)

Thesaurus term： *stratosphere ,  *warming ,  polar vortex ,  winter ,  barrier ,  forecast ,  ensemble forecast ,  predictability ,  dynamic stability (property) ,  stability analysis ,  growth rate ,  vorticity equation ,  *stratosphere temperature rising

JST classification (1)： Stratosphere,mesosphere  (DC04040D)

Reference (4)：

• Ichimaru, T., Noguchi, S., Hirooka, T. and Mukougawa, H. (2016): Predictability changes of stratospheric circulations in Northern Hemisphere winter, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, Vol. 94, pp. 7-24.
• Ishioka, K. (2016): ISPACK: A FORTRAN77 library for scientific computing, http://www.gfddennou.org/arch/ispack/index.htm.en.
• Mukougawa, H., Noguchi, S., Kuroda, Y., Mizuta, R. and Kodera, K. (2017): Dynamics and predictability of downward propagating stratospheric planetary waves observed in March 2007, J. Atmos. Sci., Vol. 74, pp. 3533-3550.
• Noguchi, S., Mukougawa, H., Kuroda, Y., Mizuta, R., Yabu, R. and Yoshimura, H. (2016): Predictability of the stratospheric polar vortex breakdown: An ensemble reforecast experiment for the splitting event in January 2009, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., Vol. 121, pp. 3388-3404.

Terms in the title (7)： 冬季 ,  成層圏 ,  極渦 ,  予測 ,  障壁 ,  成層圏突然昇温 ,  予測可能性