Art

J-GLOBAL ID：201802253479721990   Reference number：18A0318133

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes in East Asia and Their Uncertainty Based on Large Ensemble Simulations with a High-Resolution AGCM

高分解能AGCMによる大規模アンサンブルシミュレーションに基づく東アジアにおける降水極値の将来変化及びその不確実性

Author (4)： Endo Hirokazu (Meteorological Research Institute) ,  Kitoh Akio (University of Tsukuba) ,  Mizuta Ryo (Meteorological Research Institute) ,  Ishii Masayoshi (Meteorological Research Institute)
Material： SOLA (Web)  (Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere (Web))
Volume： 13  Page： 7-12(J-STAGE)  Publication year： 2017 
JST Material Number： U0028A  ISSN： 1349-6476  Document type： Article
Article type： 原著論文  Country of issue： Japan (JPN)  Language： ENGLISH (EN)

Thesaurus term： high-resolution ,  general circulation model ,  simulation ,  analytical model ,  *East Asia ,  *amount of precipitation ,  tropical cyclone
Semi thesaurus term： Ensemble simulation ,  *将来変化

JST classification (1)： Climatology,climatic change  (DC05140T)

Reference (37)：

• Bacmeister, J. T., K. A. Reed, C. Hannay, P. Lawrence, S. Bates, J. E. Truesdale, N. Rosenbloom, and M. Levy, 2016: Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x.
• Christensen, J. H., and co-authors, 2013: Climate phenomena and their relevance for future regional climate change, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, and New York, NY.
• Deser, C., A. S. Phillips, M. A. Alexander, and B. V. Smoliak, 2014: Projecting North American climate over the next 50 years: Uncertainty due to internal variability. J. Climate, 27, 2271-2296.
• Endo, H., A. Kitoh, T. Ose, R. Mizuta, and S. Kusunoki, 2012: Future changes and uncertainties in Asian precipitation simulated by multi-physics and multi-sea surface temperature ensemble experiments with high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation models (MRI-AGCMs). J. Geophys. Res., 117, D16118, doi:10.1029/2012JD017874.
• Hawkins, E., and R. Sutton, 2009: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1095-1107.

Terms in the title (9)： 高分解能 ,  AGCM ,  大規模 ,  アンサンブルシミュレーション ,  東アジア ,  降水 ,  極値 ,  将来 ,  不確実性